May 2011 Report

May 23rd, 2011

 

On this website we publish our recession probability estimates and forecasts for the US economy obtained using the methodology in Paap et al. (2009), as described below. The website is updated every month, shortly after the release of The Conference Board's Coincident Economic Index (CEI) and Leading Economic Index (LEI).

 

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Figure 1. Recession Probabilities for the US Economy

 

Figure 1 shows recession probability estimates over the last ten years up to April 2011. These are based on the CEI and LEI vintages released on May 19th.

   

The CEI increased 0.1 percent in April to 102.8 (2004 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in March, and a 0.1 percent decline in February. The LEI declined 0.3 percent in April to 114.0 (2004 = 100), following a 0.7 percent increase in March, and a 0.9 percent increase in February.

   

For the nineteenth subsequent month, both the coincident recession probability and the leading recession probability remained constant at 0.0 percent. While the LEI declined by 0.3 percent, the recession probabilities suggest that the current expansion is likely to continue in the foreseeable future.

 

The probabilities are obtained from a Markov-Switching model for monthly growth rates for the CEI and LEI. The model assumes that the two variables share the same cycle, where the LEI leads the CEI with lead times at peaks and troughs allowed to be different. The model therefore produces both a 'coincident' and a 'leading' recession probability.


Figure 2 shows coincident and leading recession probabilities since January 1959. The blue and green shaded areas indicate months that are part of periods during which this probability exceeds 0.5 for at least six consecutive months. This corresponds with the popular rule of thumb saying that the economy is in recession whenever economic growth is negative during two consecutive quarters. The recession periods as determined by the NBER are also shown for comparison.

 

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Figure 2a. Recessions as determined by the NBER

 

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Figure 2b. Recession Probabilities for the CEI

 

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Figure 2c. Recession Probabilities for the LEI


 

Time series plots of the May 2011 vintages

Figure 3 displays the time series plots of the log levels and monthly growth rates of the LEI and CEI, together with the recession periods as determined by the NBER, indicated by the yellow shaded areas. The leading index has a similar cyclical pattern as the coincident index, but with turning points clearly occurring earlier, and recessions lasting considerably longer.

 

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Figure 3a. Time Series Plots of the May 2011 Vintages: Levels
Source: The Conference Board

 

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Figure 3b. Time Series Plots of the May 2011 Vintages: Monthly Growth Rates
Source: The Conference Board